Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-25 7.772926 8.931754 10.182193 11.629047 13.254203 15.020361 17.082067
2026-02-01 6.101905 7.672395 9.500814 11.775544 14.517493 17.703202 21.670904
2026-02-08 5.138486 6.853264 8.950444 11.683096 15.126340 19.295611 24.697675
2026-02-15 4.394853 6.184502 8.472835 11.580346 15.652197 20.763747 27.616982
2026-02-22 3.892938 5.739813 8.193851 11.646230 16.322320 22.372688 30.718493
2026-03-01 3.571823 5.492032 8.132723 11.965837 17.310901 24.411591 34.450065
2026-03-08 3.148380 5.045971 7.745217 11.784755 17.578410 25.472277 36.896954
2026-03-15 2.697428 4.506826 7.168786 11.274596 17.328129 25.781921 38.298004
2026-03-22 2.526187 4.371236 7.163352 11.579399 18.240485 27.732801 42.049319
2026-03-29 2.354566 4.215166 7.108611 11.796462 19.022866 29.520103 45.631433
2026-04-05 2.135006 3.957645 6.871961 11.710261 19.333600 30.622098 48.252394
2026-04-12 1.929837 3.702445 6.615186 11.567345 19.537362 31.559697 50.652697
2026-04-19 1.769376 3.511793 6.452743 11.570399 19.978069 32.889231 53.725977
2026-04-26 1.641878 3.366936 6.354334 11.669065 20.572268 34.476372 57.256274
2026-05-03 1.499152 3.178432 6.163397 11.593672 20.870045 35.602435 60.103899
2026-05-10 1.366342 2.994399 5.963927 11.485969 21.101138 36.623298 62.815919
2026-05-17 1.272439 2.875720 5.870635 11.553358 21.622762 38.121924 66.332306
2026-05-24 1.220541 2.835515 5.917142 11.870013 22.582198 40.365876 71.125712
2026-05-31 1.109558 2.662328 5.699753 11.690455 22.664710 41.159968 73.577076
2026-06-07 0.971289 2.416067 5.321196 11.183825 22.135652 40.899216 74.263811
2026-06-14 0.935755 2.389233 5.370501 11.486496 23.072276 43.155394 79.232669
2026-06-21 0.893219 2.342307 5.375317 11.702014 23.857081 45.176310 83.868289
2026-06-28 0.824147 2.227268 5.231615 11.616426 24.077239 46.219846 86.864001